(This is an archived extract from the book Patterns of Power: Edition 2)
Some developing countries are experiencing an Industrial Revolution, with all its attendant social changes, at breakneck speed. This gives rise to many governance problems, including the following:
· Sources of supply can develop very rapidly to adapt to new demands if they are allowed to (3.3.2), but politicians need to ensure that the necessary regulations keep pace (3.3.1).
· There are huge population movements from the countryside to the cities, requiring major infrastructure investments. The Dharavi slum in Mumbai is a vivid example of what happens when people move into a city before there is housing available for them.[1]
· The growing industrialisation can create pollution problems – as experienced in China, for example.[2]
· Education is essential for an industrial workforce, whereas many rural populations have high levels of illiteracy. It is a huge logistical challenge to gear up the capacity of the education system and there are signs that India, for example, is not succeeding in meeting the challenge.[3] Over 35% of India’s population is below the age of 20, so its children need education and jobs have to be available for them when they grow up; they will be angry and frustrated if these hopes don’t materialise.[4]
· Enormous economic inequalities can emerge, as in what has been called 'two-speed India';[5] India had 48 billionaires in 2012 but also had 500 million people living on less than $1.25 a day, according to an OECD report, and the inequality is widening.[6] Resentment might emerge, although in the case of India there has been a long experience of inequality due to the operation of the caste system. Poor people are more likely to accept these gross inequalities in the 21st century if they feel that their children have a chance of achieving success.[7]
Faced with all these challenges, politicians in developing countries cannot afford to be unresponsive to the changing requirements of the populations.
© PatternsofPower.org, 2014
[1] Dharavi was the setting for the film Slumdog Millionaire and was until recently the largest slum in Asia. A National Geographic Magazine article on it, which was published in May 2007, was available in May 2014 at http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2007/05/dharavi-mumbai-slum/jacobson-text.
[2] An article entitled Pollution in China was published on 1 February 2012 on the Economist blog and was available in May 2014 at http://www.economist.com/blogs/analects/2012/02/pollution-china.
[3] Many Indian graduates have not been given the necessary skills to be employed, so they can't get jobs and could become an angry liability. The Wall Street Journal published an article entitled India Graduates Millions, but Too Few Are Fit to Hire on 11 April 2011, which pointed out that shortfalls in education “pose a potential threat to India's stability”; it was available in May 2014 at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703515504576142092863219826.html.
[4] On 25 April 2011 Sumit Gupta posted an article entitled The Truth about India’s Young Population, and how it can be a boon or a bane?, which was available in May 2014 at http://www.sumit4all.com/society/the-truth-about-indias-young-population-and-how-it-can-be-a-boon-or-a-bane.
Another article on this theme appeared on the Satyameva Jayate web-site on 7 December 2010, entitled Is India’s young population a time-bomb waiting to explode? This was available in May 2014 at http://satyameva-jayate.org/2010/12/07/young-population/.
These two articles revealed differences in the statistics on India’s young population. UNICEF figures for 2010 show that 36.5% of the population was under 18 (447309 thousand out of a total population of 1224614 thousand). These figures were available in May 2014 at http://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/india_statistics.html.
[5] The Emerging Markets blog posted an article on 24 February 2012, entitled Indian states: The first among equals, which used the term “two-speed India” and found that “The gap between rich states and poor states is growing.” The posting was available in May 2014 at http://www.emergingmarkets.org/Article/2984912/Indian-states-The-first-among-equals.html.
[6] “India is home to 4% of the world’s billionaires” according to Forbes magazine’s annual list of the world’s richest people in 2012 – as listed for example on India’s Daily News & Analysis blog which was available in May 2014 at http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_4pct-of-world-s-billionaires-in-india_1659721.
On 7 December 2011 the BBC published an article entitled India income inequality doubles in 20 years, says OECD, which was available in May 2014 at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-16064321.
[7] As an example of poor people putting all their hopes into the education of their children, one interviewee in India revealed that over 30% of his income was going on school fees. One child wanted to become a policeman, the other to enter the IT industry. Several other interviewees revealed similar aspirations.