7.4.5  The Instability of an Imposed Solution

(This is an archived extract from the book Patterns of Power: Edition 2)

A solution that is imposed militarily by one country upon another is inherently unstable because the loser inevitably has a feeling of having suffered an injustice:

·      Confrontations, such as that between Israel and Palestine, can continue for many years, periodically sliding into armed conflict and back again, and potentially never reaching a stable peace.[1]  History has repeatedly shown that settlements reached by force are temporary and eventually resurface – sometimes decades or even centuries later – because agreements made under duress aren’t seen as binding.  There is an easy transition to war when the balance of power changes substantially.  The Iraq-Iran war of 1980-88 is an example, where “The Iraqis, especially the Baath leadership, regarded the 1975 treaty as merely a truce, not a definitive settlement”.[2]  Saddam Hussein thought that he had chosen an opportune moment to attack when Iran was militarily weak, as he "watched the once invincible Imperial Iranian Army disintegrate",[3] after Iran’s Islamic revolution in 1979.[4]

·      Memories of injustice don’t die quickly.  Wars cause refugees to leave their homes, and sometimes to settle in camps in other countries for several generations.  The children growing up in such refugee camps will have been told of their parents' loss of property and hardship, so they are likely to join resistance movements as soon as they are old enough to bear arms.  Hezbollah is able to recruit from the Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon, for example, and has continued to be a thorn in Israel’s side.[5]

A balance of power lacks the legitimacy of an agreement which has been meaningfully negotiated, or a judgement which has been made impartially and transparently under a jurisdiction which is respected by both sides.

Peace can only be achieved through reconciliation, which requires political negotiation – such as that which led to the formation of the EU (6.6.5.1), for example.

© PatternsofPower.org, 2014