Countries develop their own armed forces, and form relationships with powerful partners, for self-protection against military threats
Most countries have decided that multinational and global institutions (6.6.5 and 6.6.6) are insufficiently robust to guarantee their safety. Governments choose to protect their populations by relying on their own military strength and their relationships with friendly countries, outside the realm of international law and the United Nations.
As described earlier (6.7.7), they have a range of foreign policy options for their relationships with other countries – either cooperative or coercive. And they can make trade alliances (3.5.4.5) to share their economic, technical and military resources to help their friends and to deter or attack their adversaries.
Although the need for national armed forces might be expected to diminish, it is politically inconceivable in the short to medium-term that countries will feel able to manage without them. Their level of defence spending is determined by economic and political considerations, as described later (7.4.6).
There are different forms of self-protection against military threats, as described in the following sub-sections:
· Countries might apply to join one of the two major international alliances for protection (7.2.7.1).
- The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) is a formal security alliance between Western countries. Although it is a defensive alliance, its expansion was used by President Putin to convince Russians that they were under attack.
- Russia, China and others are working within the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) to end American hegemony and prevent NATO's further expansion. Its significance has been underreported. It has largely neutralised the impact of western economic sanctions on Russia, and it can continue to have a major impact on the war in Ukraine.
· Governments can make tactical agreements and treaties in response to specific threats (7.2.7.2). They are less formal than the two alliances referred to above, and they only last as long as is mutually convenient. Countries pick and choose others they want to work with. India, Turkey and Hungary pursue their interests by having relationships with both East and West.
· Whether alone or in concert, countries might choose to forestall attacks by making an intervention (7.2.7.3). This might include the use of military force, although this is always problematic. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been very costly.
(This is an archive of a page intended to form part of Edition 4 of the Patterns of Power series of books. The latest versions are at book contents).