The structure of the Iraq analysis provides an example of how the PatternsofPower methodology can be applied to a complex problem.
The governance failings that allowed the invasion of Iraq in 2003 were the impulse for writing this book, as described in its preface. It is therefore an appropriate example of the book’s methodology. It was published in 2014, in the book PatternsofPower: Edition 2 (which has since been superceded by subsequent editions, including this one).
It is still relevant to review the quality of that analysis. It limited its sources to the information available when the politicians took the decision to invade; it involved all five dimensions of power; and it had both local and global consequences. It is also now possible to provide a retrospective review, in the light of the 20 years that have passed since the decision was taken to invade.
The Edition 2 analysis was archived on the PatternsofPower website. It is linked to from the current text, to provide an audit trail.
The following subsections describe the structure of the Iraq analysis in this chapter, beginning with what was published in 2014:
· It started with a review of the perspectives of the countries affected by the invasion (8.2 – 8.6). It drew upon public-domain information to explore factors that were relevant to the decision to invade. The summary analysis is shown here, with links to the detail.
· The original conclusion from the analysis, that there were serious governance failings in allowing the invasion of Iraq at that time, is republished here (8.7). It is unchanged, apart from minor formatting, refreshed URLs where necessary, and pulling some endnotes into the main text.
· The chapter concludes with a retrospective review of this book's analysis of the decision to invade Iraq (8.8). It includes a comparison with Sir John Chilcot's Report of the Iraq Inquiry – which was published in July 2016. That report broadly endorsed this book's conclusions, whilst also giving some additional hindsight on the impact of the invasion decision (which has factors in common with the occupation of Afghanistan).
(This is an archive of a page intended to form part of Edition 4 of the Patterns of Power series of books. The latest versions are at book contents).