The Trump style
The Ukraine peace negotiations have exposed the limitations of the Trump style, which seeks quick results to impress a TV audience.
As reported by the BBC, “the president’s belief in the power of his personal, one-on-one diplomacy may have been misplaced”. He doesn’t always accurately judge the strength of those he has been dealing with and he doesn’t seem to take account of the disadvantages of antagonising allies. Each time that he is forced to back down he appears weaker than before. He is harming America’s reputation.
Failure to stop the war quickly
As the BBC article noted, Trump initially promised to stop the war in a day. He has failed to do so. “The only substantive concession he squeezed out of Putin was a promise to end Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities, a commitment he is accused by Ukraine of breaking within hours of the call.” Putin is in no hurry to stop a war in which he thinks he has the upper hand.
Underestimating Putin
An Economist article, How Vladimir Putin plans to play Donald Trump, points out that Trump had assumed that Russia needed an end to the war. Although his economy is overheating, Putin has calculated that Donald Trump is vulnerable – needing a quick solution to enhance his image as a successful deal-maker and being prepared to jettison Ukraine’s security requirements:
“Mr Putin ..is betting that he can fight on for longer than Ukraine can, or that he can manoeuvre Mr Trump into a deal that allows Russia to reintegrate back into the world economy, renders Ukraine a divided and semi-failing state, and leaves Europe too stunned and isolated to defend itself.”
Antagonising allies
As previously noted on this website, Trump humiliated Ukraine’s President Zelensky in a television interview to pressure him into supporting a quick peace deal with no security guarantees. This tactic upset the Europeans, who feel threatened by Putin, and it was made worse by US support for Russia at the UN. Trump has also threatened other members of NATO with his plans to annex Canada and Greenland. Putin’s hand in negotiations is strengthened by lack of unity among the Western Allies.
Failure to deliver
Trump has failed to deliver on several other policies. One of the limitations of the Trump style is that he is sometimes forced to retreat when he realises that his adversary is stronger than he had thought. Such behaviour makes him look foolish, and America then appears weak. He has repeatedly threatened to impose tariffs, only to withdraw them again when he meets a strong response. Trump’s tariffs are inflicting serious economic damage and reigniting inflation according to the OECD, which notes that “Trump’s on-again, off-again levies have led to growing uncertainty for businesses around the world, preventing them from making investments that can drive economic growth”.
Playing to a television audience
The Trump style of populism seems to be modelled on his popular television show, The Apprentice, in which he appeared from 2004 to 2015. It positioned him as interviewing applicants for a job, and telling those who are unsuccessful that “you’re fired”. His interview with President Zelensky (referred to above) ended with the words “this is going to be great television”. The entire interview showed unstatesmanlike behaviour. Trump’s need for quick results and his desire to look strong are weaknesses that his adversaries can easily exploit.
I totally agree with the thrust of your argument.
As a Canadian citizen with family whose economic welfare is materially affected by Trump‘s savage and arbitrary thrusts at both the economy and autonomy of a country previously closely aligned with the USA, I can report that, as in Ukraine, disbelief has been followed by resolve and consolidation.
Only China, perhaps, has national strength comparable to that of the USA but the combined anger of all those countries who are reeling from the abandonment of a century of shared philosophical values and loyalty will have a huge impact.
In Ontario or American alcohol has been removed from the shelves and shops have labelling on goods affected by tariffs which customers then boycott. The spring exodus to the south for much needed sun has been halved. The newly imposed tariff of 25% on exported electricity has been levied apologetically. The effect is on 1.5 million customers in the northern United States to whom Canada bears no ill will. The response is to Trump. As always, the brunt is born by hapless citizens. Wars, whether economic or ‘ Conventional’ have always been suffered most grievously by citizens who become cannon fodder In the machinations of power hungry politicians.
It is very hard to see a way out of this. Those in current war zones and the illegally evicted immigrants sent to concentration camp like detention centres in San Salvador may well not get out of it.